# Probability & Data

Canonical: https://manipulatives.org/topics/probability-and-data/

Predict possible outcomes, collect observations, and compare a model with an experiment.

Chance tasks benefit from a clear distinction between what could happen, what a mathematical model predicts, and what actually happened in a trial. None of those lists automatically replaces the others.

[Dice](https://manipulatives.org/manipulatives/dice/) and [spinners](https://manipulatives.org/manipulatives/probability-spinners/) provide manageable experiments. Agree on a procedure, record every outcome, and choose the number of trials before comparing results. A tally chart is often enough to begin.

Discuss the assumptions behind a prediction. Equal sectors on an ideal fair spinner have equal probabilities; a physical pointer may behave less ideally. A short sequence that differs from a prediction is a prompt for investigation, not proof that the next result must compensate.

## Tools

- [Dice](https://manipulatives.org/manipulatives/dice/)

- [Probability Spinners](https://manipulatives.org/manipulatives/probability-spinners/)

## Articles